Academic Year 2018-2019

Assessing Land Use and Land Cover Change in Highlands, New Jersey

Land use and land cover change (LUCC) is important for understanding socio-ecological system and resilience. Spatial simulation of LUCC system modeling is challenging due to uncertainty and sensitivity of land use change drivers and land use system complexity. In this research, a logisticregression-based (LR) model and artificial-neural-network-based (ANN) model were developed and applied to simulate complex land use change processes and trends in Highlands region of New Jersey. Results indicated that the ANN model was more efficient compared to the LR model in achieving land use change simulation accuracy. Implementing artificial neural network in land use system model helped in capturing the complex relationships between LUCC and a set of spatial land use change driving factors. The two spatially explicit land use system models were reliable and provide the accuracy of land use process. These models also have potential implications for land use planning and sustainable development in highlands, New Jersey

 Challenges of Categorizing Household Food Items and Understanding Climate Impacts

Rutgers collaborated on a project whose goals are to analyze household-level food, energy, and water consumption and to establish interventions to reduce consumption. Within this larger project, our specific research aims to create a way to collect and record grocery receipts from households and to have food listed in their respective categories in order to link food purchases to greenhouse gas emissions. While energy and water can be tracked with electronic meters, collecting food data can be done through several methods, many of which involving significant burden on the participant or researcher. Challenges in categorizing foods are that they fit into different categories depending on how they are processed or packaged; technology like an optical character recognition (OCR) reader that could read scanned receipts, does not work; and participants categorizing the foods themselves leads to mistakes. Our solution: have participants scan pictures of the receipts, upload them to a website, and have trained individuals categorize the items using a computer program to ensure uniform data entry. We hope this will give us an understanding how to better collect household food consumption data and will allow more researchers to target the issue of household food consumption and climate change mitigation.

 Characterizing Concurrent Hot and Dry Spell Events Across Crucial Breadbasket Regions

 Extreme hot and dry spells in major growing regions have far reaching impacts on global food production. Observed data suggests that there has been a substantial increase in the number of concurrent droughts and heatwaves over the last fifty years—conditions that prove devastating for crop growth. This study assesses the incidence of concurrent extreme droughts and heatwaves on wheat croplands across the major breadbasket regions around the world between 1950 and 2014. Maps were produced for spring and winter growing seasons, which represent the global distribution of wheat croplands in the years that experienced the greatest number of concurrent extreme events during the history of the available data (e.g. gridded daily surface temperature, SPEI and PDSI). By assessing the global distribution of wheat producing locations affected by the most extreme incidents of concurrent hot and dry spell conditions, we aim to present a better diagnosis of (1) the characteristics of extreme weather conditions relevant for global wheat productivity around the globe and (2) the associated larger-scale climate variability.

Household Behavior Change Interventions for Climate Change Mitigation: A Typology Targeting the Food-Energy-Water (FEW) Nexus

The purpose of this research is to propose a new typological framework for classifying behavioral interventions for climate change mitigation targeted at the household food, energy, and water nexus to both advance the science of behavioral change beyond specific realms and contexts, and to allow the accumulation of insights on human behavior. This study seeks to review what types of interventions are frequently being utilized in recent FEW consumption research, and how these intervention strategies can be reconceptualized and implemented across research areas with greater ease. Interventions can fall within the categories of information, tailored information, action, gamification, and addressing structural barriers. Recognizing these roles provides one way of linking intervention technique to theoretical behavioral motivators in order to affect climate change mitigation at the household level.

Seabird Population Declines in NJ Reflect Sea Level Rise

Seabirds nesting on low-lying islands are vulnerable to sea level rise and the effects of increased storm frequency and severity. These effects are magnified for coastal islands where human disturbance and development reduce options for nesting. We examined population levels, and colony numbers of Herring, Great Black-backed and Laughing Gulls, Common and Forster’s Terns, and Black Skimmers from 1976 to 2017 in Barnegat Bay, New Jersey. Nesting populations (and the number of colony sites) of all species declined, except for Great Black-backed Gull, which being larger, could outcompete the smaller species for remaining prime nesting sites. Declines in reproductive success lagged behind decreases in number of nesting terns and skimmers. The larger gulls were also predators on the smaller species of gulls and terns. Laughing Gulls declined precipitously following culling at JFK airport, and never regained their former number of nesting pairs. Smaller species were forced into lower elevations, sub-optimal nesting sites, and had lower nesting success due to flooding. Higher frequency and severity of winter storms resulted in loss of wrack high on marshes due to complete over-washing of low-lying islands, which reduced the availability of nest sites for terns and skimmers. The declines in population numbers for colonial-nesting gulls terns and skimmers followed similar loss of habitat and declines in populations of seabirds in Chesapeake Bay to the south, and were earlier than similar declines in Long Island Sound and the NY-NJ harbor. 

Assessing impacts of climate change on co-occurring ragweed pollen and ozone exceedances across the contiguous US using an integrative data analysis and predictive modeling framework

Ambient air quality has been substantially impacted by climate change over the past few decades. In fact, climate change critically affects both the atmospheric processes involved in the dynamics of air pollution systems and the dynamics of biogenic emissions, including tree and grass pollens and fungal spores. Furthermore, the prevalence of Allergic Airway Disease (AAD) is growing globally, resulting in increased numbers of emergency department visits and hospitalizations. Clinical studies show that AAD can be exacerbated by the synergistic action of aeroallergens such as pollens and spores, and atmospheric pollutants such as ozone. Previous studies, involving data from nationwide observations of airborne pollen counts of selected plant species in conjunction with climatic factors, indicated that the start date and length of pollen season, the average peak value and the annual total of daily airborne pollen counts have been affected by the changing climate. The present study investigates co-occurrences of ozone exceedance and allergenic pollens across the contiguous United States (ConUS). Analyses of observed pollen counts and ozone concentrations at 58 pollen monitor stations were conducted. Also, emissions and concentrations of pollens in base years (2004) and future years (2047) were simulated with a customized version of CMAQ (the Community Multiscale Air Quality model) employing a grid with 36 km by 36 km horizontal resolution, while corresponding ozone concentrations at the same resolution for the above timeframes were conducted by a multi-university/agency consortium including USEPA. This study employed spatiotemporal correlation analysis to examine patterns of co-occurring ozone and pollen concentrations; the outcomes of this analysis provide information that can support development of strategies for managing health-impacts of co-occurring photochemical pollutants and aeroallergens.

  Permeable glacial deposits regulate hydrology and methane emissions in eccentric bogs

 Ponds often cluster in an eccentric crescent pattern in bogs that are spatially associated with eskers over northern regions. Eskers and other permeable glacial deposits influence hydrology and may also regulate methane (CH4) emissions in such eccentric bogs. Ground penetrating radar imaging and direct coring confirmed that clustered ponds coincide with esker outcrops in two eccentric bogs in Maine (USA). Chamber-based flux measurements revealed that the mean CH4 flux from peat above permeable lenses of buried esker crests in contact with organic soil in the pond area of one bog (31.12 mg CH4 m-2 day-1) was larger than the mean fluxes far away from the ponds (0.87 mg CH4 m-2 day-1). Transects of hydraulic heads and geochemical data revealed downward water flow from shallow peat soil towards the permeable lenses, suggesting enhanced downward transport of labile organic carbon that presumably accelerates decomposition and CH4 production in deep peat. The high CH4 flux associated with permeable lenses suggests that permeable glacial deposits (such as eskers) might serve as geological proxies of CH4 hotspots in eccentric bogs, where direct CH4 fluxes from the peat add to fluxes from ponds themselves. 

Climate, food systems and nutrition Climate, food systems and nutrition

 There are 821 million people who are undernourished on the planet. Fifty million children under five are wasted and 151 million are stunted, while over 2 billion people have micronutrient deficiencies. Subsistence farmers are among the most vulnerable to the multiple burdens of malnutrition. They are also among the most vulnerable to climate variability, including extreme events. Thus, the objectives of this paper is to: 1) examine the way in which climate affects nutrition using a food systems approach; 2) identify potential ‘nutrition-sensitive’ interventions aimed at adapting to climate variability; and 3) identify entry points for climate services to help improve the implementation of ‘nutrition-sensitive’ climate adaptation interventions. Through an extensive review of the literature we find that although there are many gaps in the existing evidence base, there are several interventions that can be adopted to inject nutrition into climate adaptation approaches. In addition, climate services can play an important role in terms of prioritizing nutrition-sensitive climate adaptation interventions based on spatial and seasonal risk. More specifically, such services can be used to better target interventions, provide early warnings and inform long-term planning and preparedness. 

 Population Dynamics of Erman's Birch (Betula ermanii) and Climate Change at the Changbai Mountain Treeline, China

In order to understand the mechanisms underlying the population dynamics of ermani's birch in responding to climate change over the past 55 years, 310 quadrats were sampled in 7 plots located in the upper treeline region on the north-facing slopes of Changbai Mountains located in northeastern China. IKONOS images were used to identify the spatial distribution of erman's birch with the aid of a digital elevation model (DEM). Meteorological data were recorded in the field throughout the study area and collected from a nearby long-term weather station, to reconstruct the temperature and precipitation changes. We collected tree-ring samples from a total of 1197 erman’s birch trees and shrubs. The correlation coefficients between 14 climate parameters from 1953 to 2008 and the aggregated annual indices of population dynamics for each of the 310 quadrats in the corresponding years were calculated via statistical analysis facilitated by GIS technology. The results show that population of erman's birch was more sensitive to changes in air temperature than to changes in precipitation. During the period when air temperature increased at a slower pace, its population steadily expanded via asexual reproduction and with a higher survival rate. During the period when air temperature increased rapidly, its population responded via rapid sexual reproduction and produced a large number of progeny.

Subhasis Giri, Nazia N. Arbab, Richard G. Lathrop: Rutgers University

Assessing the Potential Impacts of Climate and Land Use Change on Water Fluxes and Sediment Transport in a Coupled Natural and Human System

Local Community Perspective on Climate Change: Air Pollution & Asthma

The steady rise in temperature has increasingly affected many people worldwide and particularly the elderly, the poor, and the disabled. There is increasing evidence of the impact of elevated temperature on the cardiorespiratory health of humans. It is particularly noteworthy that the World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that 250,000 additional deaths will occur between 2030 and 2050 due to climate change and million more lives will become disabled resulting in a decrease in economical productivity. Asthma and COPD continues to rise in the District of Columbia and it can be argued that the elevation of asthma and COPD cases are linked to changes in the environment (D’Amato et al. 2015; D’Amato et al. 2010). Chronic lung diseases arise from heat and air pollution, and when combined with increased ozone or sulfur dioxide, childhood asthma rates increases (Guarnieri & Balmes, 2014).

Designing Protcols that Document Household Food Purchases in an Effort to Reduce Greennhouse Gas Emissions

Although many studies demonstrate the effects of human resource consumption on greenhouse gas emissions, very few examine the consequences of food, water, and energy consumption jointly. The negative effects that over-consuming these resources has on the planet’s ecosystems, biodiversity, and climate change have engendered a need for such research. As part of a national study that aims to develop interventions so individuals can mitigate their energy consumption behaviors, this research specifically focuses on developing a protocol for tracking and categorizing household food intake through food purchases. Purchase price will serve as a measurement-unit in a life-cycle assessment to predict average carbon dioxide emissions for each food category. After examining existing research regarding food data tracking, we chose a combination of survey questions and annotated receipts to measure household food purchases. These methods were deemed less expensive and burdensome than other common methods such as home food inventories (HFIs) and universal product code (UPC) scanning. The outcome of this research was the development of a data collection protocol, including relevant survey questions, food-purchase location categories, annotation schemas, and various flowcharts. Future steps for this study include using the protocol to create a mobile application for eventual use in a national study.

Tracing Storms and Climate Change Through Tree-Ring Growth Patterns on Coastal Maritime Forests

 This project focuses on coastal maritime forests located on Sandy Hook, NJ and Fire Island, NY, in an attempt to understand how local forests have been responding to climate change. Specifically, we aim to examine ring damage in tree cores as a result of severe storm events and saltwater inundation. Due to anthropogenic climate change creating more severe storms and rising sea levels, this study has become increasingly relevant and important in creating necessary foundational research on these unique forests. A series of cores were extracted from four dominant species amongst the two locations. Following sample preparation, we will examine tree-ring width and density using a high resolution scanner and CooRecorder, a computer program used to measure ring width and density. Once the chronologies have been constructed using rigorous cross-dating techniques, we will use the site-specific meteorological data to determine the climate signal. We will also evaluate the oxygen isotopic composition of each ring in several of the older tree specimens to better understand the atmospheric dynamics, and potentially ‘fingerprint’ extreme saltwater intrusion events from major storms. As some of these trees date back to the 1800s, this research will provide extended insights into storm frequency in this region.

 Does Sediment Impact the Routing of Meltwater in Supraglacial Streams?

Supraglacial streams are prevalent on the surface of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Water and dark sediment in these streams increase absorption of solar radiation. Their flow variability also plays a significant role in defining the efficiency of the subglacial drainage system. How long it takes meltwater to route through these systems therefore dictates how much they contribute to further melting. Routing times depend on the morphology and bed friction of supraglacial streams. Little is known about the processes that control the amount of friction applied by the bed and how it might be impacted by changes in sediment fluxes. Here we measure a single supraglacial stream in southwest Greenland using high resolution GPS mapping, velocity measurements, and UAV imagery. Analysis of these inputs produced a centimeter scale bathymetric map, a week-long stream discharge time series, and map of initial sediment distribution. Together, they give clues to how sediment changes bed friction through pitting and stream widening. Bed roughness values vary significantly within the study region as a result of transported sediments and channelization. This process may help us better understand how supraglacial streams will influence the energy balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet in response to climate change.

A Random Forest Approach for Cloud Base Analysis

The 2007-2008 Arctic Freshwater Accumulation Event in the Beaufort Gyre 

Towards understanding supraglacial river networks in southwest Greenland

The Space-Time Variation of Global Crop Yields, Detecting Simultaneous Outliers and Identifying the Teleconnections with Climatic Patterns

The Extinction of Iconic Megatoothed Shark Otodus megalodon: Evidence from Clumped Isotope Thermometry (CIT) 

Global hotspots of synchronous marine fisheries

  Synchronous population dynamics among marine populations have intrigued scientists for decades and can indicate strong environmental forcing or common predators. Commercially important fisheries that display synchronous patterns are of concern because simultaneous population crashes would likely have negative consequences for coastal fishing communities. Here, we test for the presence of synchronous patterns among marine fish and invertebrate fisheries globally, then examine the underlying mechanisms that may drive these synchronous patterns. We used wavelet analyses, a method suitable for non-stationary data that can identify both time-specific and frequency-specific synchrony patterns. These wavelet methods were used on annually-resolved Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) fisheries catch data and on large-scale climate data. The FAO catch data consisted of 1092 populations in 15 FAO regions over the period 1950 to 2014. Results show a high degree of synchrony within some FAO regions, particularly the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem (CCLME). In this region, a majority of the 43 species displayed synchronous fisheries catch at periods of 8 to 10-years from the 1970s to 2000s. This periods also corresponds to the North Atlantic Oscillation in winter. Our results suggest that climate variability drives strong synchrony among marine fisheries both globally and in the CCLME.

Climate Information for Public Health Action

Shifting sex ratios and morphology in American Holly

Impacts of Increasing Precipitation on Physical Weed Control 

The effect of ocean warming on black sea bass aerobic scope and hypoxia tolerance

Over the last decade, ocean temperature in the U.S. Northeast Continental Shelf (U.S. NES) has warmed faster than the global average and is associated with observed distribution changes of the northern stock of black sea bass (Centropristis striata). Mechanistic models based on physiological responses to environmental conditions can improve future habitat suitability projections. We measured maximum (MMR), resting (RMR), and hypoxia tolerance (Pcrit) of the northern adult black sea bass stock to assess performance across the known temperature range of the species. A subset of individuals were held at 30˚C for one month (30chronicC) prior to experiments to test acclimation potential. Aerobic scope (MMR-RMR) reached a maximum at 24.4C (AS: 367.21 mgO2 kg-1 hr-1) and the 30chronicC group had a significant decrease in AS. The Metabolic Index, calculated from Pcrit as an estimate of potential aerobic scope, closely matched the measured factorial aerobic scope and declined with increasing temperature to a minimum below 3. This may represent a critical value for the species. Temperature in the U.S. NES is projected to increase above 24C in the southern portion of the northern stock’s range. Therefore, these black sea bass will likely continue to shift north as the ocean continues to warm.

Rutgers Climate Change Education: Two Successful Program Models 

Can an Interactive Ocean Impact the Indian Ocean-NAO Teleconnection?

We use the Community Earth System Model (CESM) to observe the teleconnection between the sea surface temperature (SST) of the Indian Ocean and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). In this work, we compare results based on simulations using a fixed SST patch in the Indian Ocean with simulations using a slab-ocean model (SOM) within the CESM. In both cases, we examine how these SSTs are positively correlated with the NAO amplitude. For the SOM case, we apply anomalous heat fluxes to the standard Q-flux fields to impose changes in SSTs using the interactive slab-ocean. This method allows atmosphere-ocean heat fluxes to adjust surface temperatures everywhere and feedback on the atmospheric NAO response. To analyze changes in the teleconnections, we estimate changes in both the Indian Ocean and the NAO as related to patterns in SST, sea level pressure (SLP), and precipitation. By understanding how the results of our method compare to the earlier work, we can begin to understand the role of atmosphere-ocean feedback in teleconnection responses. In initial results, we have observed how an interactive ocean reduces the strength of the Indian Ocean-NAO teleconnection.

Global Climate Change: Economic Impacts and Abatement Strategies for Greenhouse Gas Emissions Using the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Residential Carbon Footprint Calculator

Pathways to Completely Renewable Electricity at Rutgers University

Development of a deep-sea glider pH sensor to monitor coastal acidification

Firn properties of 8 cores collected in southwestern Greenland Ice Sheet 2018

Increasing mass loss of Greenland Ice Sheet is the main cause of 21st century global sea level rise. The majority of ice sheet mass loss comes from surface melting. While most meltwater escapes to the ocean in the form of runoff, a substantial fraction infiltrates into firn and refreezes. Ice lenses formed in the firn can prevent meltwater from entering deeper layers causing water to flow into the ocean as surface runoff instead of refreezing. To better understand the spatial variability of firn properties and potential impermeable layers, eight firn cores were drilled at three sites in southwestern Greenland in the spring of 2018. Here, we report on their lengths, weights, ice lens features, and the distribution of these properties. Through this work, we are trying to explore the spatial variability of firn properties and in what way does it relate to the surface runoff.

  pdf (32.46 MB) Subtropical Stationary Waves Connecting Hydrological Extremes To Climate Warming in Boreal Summer

Subtropical stationary waves may act as an important bridge connecting regional hydrological extremes with global warming. Observations show that the boreal summer stationary-wave amplitude (SWA) had a significantly positive trend during 1979–2013. Here, we investigate the past and future responses of SWA to increasing climate forcing using 31 CMIP5 GCMs. Twenty-three out of 31 models display a consistent increase in climatological-mean SWA in response to warming. To assess the detectability of a trend in SWA, we compared half-century trends between preindustrial control (PiControl), historical, and RCP8.5 simulations. The probability distribution of the normalized SWA trend obtained through bootstrapping shows neither positive nor negative tendencies of SWA trend in PiControl simulations. A total of 22 of 31 historical simulations exhibit a positive SWA trend. The SWA trends in 26 of 31 RCP8.5 simulations are positive. The finding supports the hypothesis that the positive SWA trend is at least partially driven by increasing external forcing. The linear regression of interannual variability in hydrological extreme frequency on SWA suggests that high SWA is related to increased heavy-rainfall-day frequency over South Asia, the Indochinese Pen- insula, and southern China (SA-EA), and to increased dry-spell-day frequency over the northwestern and central United States (NUS) and the southern United States and Mexico (SUS-MEX). The projected amplification of SWA, combined with the relationships between SWA and number of hydrological extremes, may partially explain projected increases in the number of dry spells over NUS and SUS-MEX and the number of heavy-rainfall days over SA-EA.